Why the Brewers Will Definitely Trade Corbin Burnes This Winter

Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s landing spot dealt another blow to the potential trade market for the Brewers’ upcoming free agent. Despite this setback, the Brewers have viable options, and indications suggest they are poised to take advantage of one of them.

It’s highly likely that Corbin Burnes will enter free agency next fall, a sentiment he recently reaffirmed. Knowing they can’t compete for his services once he hits free agency, the Brewers face a decision:

1. Trade him now to maximize the return.
2. Keep him for another playoff run but consider dealing him if the team falters early. If retained all year, they could still secure a compensation pick in the 2025 Draft.

The Brewers, concerned not just about 2024 but the future, find it challenging to compete financially with teams like the Dodgers and Yankees for elite players. Recent moves by these teams, such as acquiring Shohei Ohtani and Tyler Glasnow, emphasize the widening gap. Given this landscape, the Brewers are likely to trade Burnes now, obtaining young, talented, and cost-effective players.

Despite the team’s solid performance and the relative weakness of their division, the Brewers hesitate to hold onto Burnes due to the lessons of the 2022 season. Dealing closer Josh Hader at the trade deadline that year, while leading the division, led to a post-trade stumble, missing the playoffs, and clubhouse discontent. The Brewers, learning from this experience, understand the risks of holding onto Burnes in a tight playoff race.

The Brewers fear that if they wait until the deadline, they may end up keeping Burnes instead of trading him, causing potential turmoil. Burnes’ intention to explore free agency after the next season slightly diminishes his trade value, but teams like the Dodgers or Yankees could use the time to persuade him to stay.

The specter of Brandon Woodruff’s injury looms, highlighting the potential downside of keeping Burnes and risking a similar scenario. The Brewers aim to avoid this risk and capitalize on Burnes’ current trade value, aligning with their philosophy of proactive aggressiveness in the market.

While acknowledging the difficulty of replacing a top-of-the-rotation starter, the Brewers are willing to take the risk, likely acquiring a major-league-ready starter and other assets in the trade. Trading Burnes also frees up payroll, allowing the team to fill the gap with a serviceable but less expensive player.

In summary, the Brewers are motivated to trade Burnes this offseason, considering it a calculated risk to secure a valuable return. As other top arms come off the market, the Burnes trade talks are expected to intensify, with the team likely to accept a compelling offer despite potential fan disappointment.