The New York Yankees struck a blockbuster deal for outfielder Juan Soto this offseason, giving them the firepower they need to reclaim first place in the AL East after missing the playoffs last season. However, now that Soto has been acquired, a contract extension is on the horizon, as the former Padres home run hitter enters his final year of arbitration in 2024.

The Athletic’s Brendan Kuty and Chris Kirschner recently made some wild predictions for the coming year, including a hefty extension for Soto at the end of next season.

The Yankees could give Juan Soto a massive contract extension next year

The Yankees are anticipating a significant impact from Soto on their offensive performance. In 2023, the three-time All-Star achieved a new career high by hitting 35 home runs. According to Kuty and Kirschner, there are expectations that Soto will surpass this career high and establish new records in 2024.

Kuty envisions a remarkable season for Soto, projecting him to hit 66 home runs, with Judge batting ahead of him and the enticing possibility of a substantial payday in free agency. This optimistic outlook is based on the favorable conditions, particularly the short porch at Yankee Stadium.

If Soto does manage to achieve such extraordinary feats and break records in the upcoming season, he stands to secure a substantial contract extension as an unrestricted free agent in 2025. Kirschner speculates on a 12-year, $550 million extension, emphasizing that such a deal would be justified if Soto surpasses Judge’s AL single-season home run record, making him a highly valuable asset to the renowned Yankees franchise. Kirschner notes that, similar to Judge’s negotiation leverage after hitting 62 home runs, Soto would have comparable negotiating power in the event of a record-breaking season.

How likely are these predictions to come true?

Only nine times in the history of MLB has a player achieved the feat of hitting 60 or more home runs in a single season. If Soto manages to reach this milestone, he would become the 10th player in history and the fourth of the current millennium to do so. Despite Soto’s remarkable talent, surpassing Aaron Judge’s home-run record is a formidable challenge and not a likely outcome for any player.

Looking ahead, Soto’s anticipated $550 million extension translates to an annual average value (AAV) of $45.83 million, making him the second-highest-paid player in the league—a more plausible scenario.

Even if Soto falls short of breaking records in 2024, his track record as a three-time All-Star and four-time Silver Slugger Award winner, with four top-10 MVP voting finishes in six career seasons, speaks volumes. At the age of 25, Soto has already compiled an impressive resume, setting himself up for a substantial payday in 2025.