When the Detroit Lions traded their long-time franchise quarterback Matthew Stafford, the package was headlined by a trio of draft picks. Jared Goff and his massive contract were widely seen as a temporary solution while Detroit rebuilt its roster. However, over three seasons, Goff has led a successful rebuild, culminating in the team breaking curses and achieving milestones in 2023. Speculation about whether Brad Holmes and Detroit’s front office would stick with Goff or bring in a young quarterback has been rife. Now that their days of picking in the top-five to top-10 appear to be over, they answered that question on Monday by signing Goff to his third NFL contract, a four-year, $212 million mega-deal.
This move by the Lions has not only shaken up the quarterback market but also complicated matters for the Green Bay Packers. Jordan Love became extension-eligible earlier this month, and pundits now expect him to sign a similar deal with Green Bay. With Love’s impressive performance in 2023, his market value has skyrocketed. When Daniel Jones signed for an average annual value (AAV) of $40 million last year, Love was projected to fall into that range, provided he proved himself as the franchise’s future. Now, a $50 million annual salary seems like the minimum he might command.
Goff’s $212 million deal is more complex than it appears. Only $170 million is guaranteed, and it’s unclear how much of this is new money versus carried over from his previous contract. The figures reported by sources like ESPN’s Adam Schefter need to be viewed with some skepticism, as agent-speak can often embellish the reality.
Resetting the market is crucial for agents and athletes. For example, Jaire Alexander reset the market with his four-year, $84 million deal last offseason. Recently, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers extended their young star safety Antoine Winfield Jr. for $84.1 million, just slightly more. Joe Burrow currently leads the quarterback market with a $62.9 million AAV. Goff’s new contract positions him in a new upper mid-tier between Justin Herbert and Lamar Jackson, paving the way for Love to demand a salary closer to Burrow’s level than Herbert’s.
The Packers have cleared their salary cap with Aaron Rodgers off the books and a number of key contributors on rookie contracts. Ideally, they would use this financial flexibility to address other needs in free agency, as they did this spring with Xavier McKinney and Josh Jacobs. To make Love’s contract more manageable, extending it to a fifth year for salary relief might be a strategic move. Love is young, has proven himself, and his potential suggests he could earn a third contract in an even more lucrative market.
While it’s unfortunate that the Packers couldn’t fully leverage the financial advantage of having a quality quarterback on a rookie contract, the team has managed to develop Love without rushing him into a starting role. This approach, unlike that of teams that hastily thrust highly touted prospects into difficult situations, has yielded better results. Love didn’t appear ready until the second half of 2023, making the decision to extend him now a more confident one.
Packers fans and the NFL media have been quick to include Love in discussions about the league’s elite quarterbacks. Even Davante Adams has shown some implicit regret for leaving Green Bay, believing initially that a post-Rodgers team wouldn’t meet his goals. Now, with Love proving his worth, the Packers are ready to invest in their new star quarterback, a decision influenced by the recent Goff deal. Expect Love’s contract to reflect his rising status, significantly impacted by Goff’s market-setting agreement.