The Rangers, the defending World Series champions, currently have a 46-50 record, placing them 7.5 games back of a Wild Card spot and five games out in the AL West behind the Mariners and Astros. With less than two weeks until the trade deadline, general manager Chris Young faces some decisions but is hoping his players make the decision for him.
“We are going to do everything we can to win this year,” Young told Joel Sherman of The New York Post, while also indicating he “wants to take as much time as possible to make a choice and hope in the next week [the results] make it clear we are buyers.”
FanGraphs’ Playoff Odds give the Rangers a 12.3% chance of making the postseason, while PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus are slightly more optimistic at 18.2%. Young and his staff will likely be discussing various trade scenarios with other clubs as they host the Orioles for three games, the White Sox for four, and then play three in Toronto before starting a three-game set in St. Louis. The trade deadline is July 30, after just one game against the Cardinals.
The Rangers find themselves in an interesting position, with potential arguments for buying, selling, or a combination of both. The argument for buying hinges on the team having better health in the second half of the season than in the first.
On the position player side, both Evan Carter and Josh Jung are currently on the injured list. Carter struggled over the first two months of the season, hitting just .188/.272/.361 while battling back tightness that eventually put him on the shelf. Manager Bruce Bochy later described it as a stress reaction, with the timeline still unclear. Jung has only played four games this year before being hit by a pitch and suffering a wrist fracture that required surgery. His rehab assignment was shut down a few weeks ago due to continued discomfort, and his ramp-up is also somewhat murky.
On the pitching side, Andrew Heaney has been the only consistent rotation member. Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Lorenzen, and Jon Gray each spent time on the injured list, though they are currently active. Max Scherzer had offseason back surgery and began the season on the IL, then had his return delayed by a thumb injury. He has missed most of this season but has returned in recent weeks and has taken the ball five times this year.
The rotation could be getting further reinforcements, with both Jacob deGrom and Tyler Mahle working back from Tommy John surgeries they underwent last summer. Dane Dunning and Cody Bradford are also on the IL and could return later in the year.
That theoretically stronger rotation and the possible returns of Carter and/or Jung could inspire the club to push hard at the deadline, hoping to gain steam for a strong second half. But it could also be an argument for doing some selling. Hypothetically, if everyone were to be healthy at some point in the coming months, the club would have nine rotation candidates in deGrom, Scherzer, Eovaldi, Gray, Mahle, Heaney, Lorenzen, Bradford, and Dunning.
The club probably doesn’t want to bank on all of them being healthy at the same time, so they wouldn’t necessarily need to trim the number to five. Dunning has often pitched in relief and can be kept there. Bradford has a 1.40 ERA this year but in a small sample of three starts. Despite the strong results, the Rangers would be justified in optioning him to the minors if he were blocked by their more established guys.
But that still leaves seven solid veteran options that could all be healthy in the weeks to come. Perhaps the club will feel they could trade an impending free agent or two without really “selling” here in 2024 or hurting themselves too much in the future. Lorenzen is on a one-year deal and set to return to the open market at season’s end. Heaney is in the final season of his two-year deal.
Scherzer is also slated for free agency at season’s end but has a full no-trade clause. He recently said on Foul Territory that he thought the club would play better and make the issue of waiving it moot.
Eovaldi is in the final guaranteed year of his deal, though there’s a vesting player option for 2025 he could potentially unlock. One of the three ways to unlock that option involved making the 2024 All-Star team, which he did not achieve. Therefore, he needs to pitch 300 combined innings over 2023 and 2024 or finish in the top five in Cy Young voting. He is currently at 238 innings and should be able to cross the threshold if he stays healthy. The limited trade protection in his deal complicates any potential trade.
Gray and Mahle each have one year left on their deals, making them somewhat plausible trade candidates, though moving them would hurt the club’s chances next year. With Scherzer, Heaney, and Lorenzen slated for free agency after 2024, the Rangers might want to keep Gray and Mahle in the mix for 2025 alongside deGrom, Bradford, Dunning, and maybe Eovaldi.
If the Rangers decide to sell, they would have those pitchers to market, as well as impending free agents David Robertson, José Leclerc, Kirby Yates, José Ureña, Travis Jankowski, and Robbie Grossman. Based on Young’s comments, it sounds like it would take a rough performance in the coming weeks for them to sell, but those would be the options. Sherman also suggests that Adolis García or Nathaniel Lowe could be available, though each is arbitration-controlled through 2026 and it doesn’t seem likely the team would consider trading them unless presented with an offer they can’t refuse.
As Young and his team decide how to proceed, the upcoming part of the schedule could define the team’s direction for the remainder of the season.