The Buffalo Bills host the Denver Broncos this Sunday for NFL Super Wild Card Weekend. While this is the sixth-straight year the Bills have made the playoffs, it’s Denver’s first appearance in the postseason since the 2015 season. That was a year where Von Miller and the Broncos’ defense dominated the Carolina Panthers, whose defense was coordinated by Sean McDermott, in the Super Bowl.
The Broncos technically have a three-game playoff winning streak on the line, although all the principles from that last playoff run are no longer with the team. This vintage of the Broncos went 10-7 on the regular season and defeated the Kansas City Chiefs’ backups in the final regular-season game to punch their ticket to the playoffs.
Denver has been hot in the season’s second half, and they’ll need to stay that way if they want to leave Highmark Stadium with a victory. If the Bills want to stave off elimination and live to play one more game in Orchard Park, NY, they’ll need to shut down Denver’s top players.
Here are five Broncos to watch this week.
QB Bo Nix
In head coach Sean McDermott’s tenure as head coach, the Bills are 9-4 against rookie quarterbacks. Those four losses were:
- In 2018 vs. Sam Darnold and the New York Jets
- In 2021 against Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars in a 9-6 barnburner
- Also in 2021 against Mac Jones and the New England Patriots in a 14-10 game highlighted by tropical storm-force winds
- Last week against the Patriots with Drake Maye/Joe Milton III playing against Buffalo’s backups and winning 23-16
Rookie quarterbacks have combined to throw seven touchdowns and 17 interceptions against the Bills in McDermott’s coaching tenure. Nix presents a unique challenge for a few reasons, as he’s extremely accurate, he throws plenty of passes at or near the line of scrimmage, and he has the ability to beat the defense with scrambles.
Nix took just 24 sacks this season while rushing for 430 yards, and he threw just 12 interceptions against 29 touchdowns. In short, the 24-year-old rookie had a fantastic season in turning the Broncos from a disappointing 2023 squad into a playoff contender in 2024.
The Bills need to make him guess coverage after the snap in order to create turnovers or hesitation. If they can make him think his first read will be there pre-snap before rolling coverage that way after the snap occurs, they’ll be able to force some negative plays.
Keeping Denver in obvious passing situations will allow the pass rush to do its thing, and if the rush and the coverage can play good complementary football, then the Bills will be moving on to the Divisional Round. If not, though, Nix has the talent and the weapons to cause issues.
WR Marvin Mims
I wrote about Courtland Sutton in our article discussing Broncos we’d like to add to Buffalo’s roster, so I won’t discuss him here again. I will talk about Mims, a second-year man who can hurt the Bills in a variety of ways.
Mims is lightning-fast and can create separation at will in his pass routes. He averaged 12.9 yards per catch this season, hauling in 39 passes for 503 yards and six scores. However, it’s his work in the return game that could be even more dangerous.
The Bills would be wise to kick all of their kickoffs through the end zone, as I’d rather see Denver have the ball at the 30-yard line than give Mims a chance to return a kick for a score. He was a Pro Bowl returner last year as a rookie, and this year he’s averaging 15.7 yards per punt return — which leads the league — and 27.7 yards per kickoff return.
Speed kills, and Mims has enough to cause the Bills myriad problems on Sunday. His matchup with Taron Johnson is going to be huge.
LB Nik Bonitto
The third-year edge player has exploded onto the scene this season, notching 13.5 sacks in earning his first Pro Bowl nod. He also had 24 quarterback hits and 16 tackles for loss, so it was a stellar season all around for the top pass rusher on the league’s top pass-rushing team.
Buffalo has one of the best pass-protecting offensive lines in the NFL, and they also have an absolute unit playing quarterback in one Joshua Patrick Allen. If the line can do its part in keeping Allen upright, then No. 17 will be free to continue working his playoff magic.
If Bonitto and friends can disrupt the passing attack, it will make this one much more difficult. Bonitto is good enough to wreck the Bills’ offensive game plan, so they’ll need to be sure that he’s accounted for at all times. If Buffalo’s offense can establish the run and the quick-hitting passing game, it will limit the damage Bonitto can do.
Staying ahead of the sticks and trusting the offensive tackles to handle him — with some help from the backs and tight ends — would be the way I’d approach it.
LB Cody Barton
Barton is one of two inside linebackers for the Broncos, and like his teammate Justin Strnad, he struggles in pass coverage. The Bills and offensive coordinator Joe Brady would be wise to attack the middle of the field in the passing game, as Denver’s outside corners — especially Pat Surtain II — are excellent.
According to Pro Football Reference, Barton has allowed 41-of-47 passes to be completed when he’s the closest man in coverage. While he does have two interceptions, I’ll take my chances on a guy allowing 87% of the passes thrown his way to be completed.
Barton was second on the Broncos in tackles this season with 106. As solid as he is against the run, he’s that much of a liability and more against the pass.
CB Ja’Quan McMillan
I don’t believe the Broncos are going to have their corners travel with Buffalo’s wideouts, as they generally have Pat Surtain II at left corner and Riley Moss at right corner. That means the Bills might be able to dictate some matchups, especially in the slot, to players like Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid.
Enter McMillan, Denver’s top slot corner. He’s a willing tackler, as he notched 81 on the season — and he’s strong in pass coverage, having made two interceptions and 10 pass breakups on the year.
However, McMillan allowed three touchdowns, a 64% completion rate, and 688 receiving yards on 65 completed passes this season. Unless Denver matches Surtain II up on Shakir, I’m spamming Shakir to the slot and trying to let him win his matchup in the middle, using some pick plays and other various rub-routes to cause traffic and confusion in the intermediate-middle of the defense.
If Denver wants to use Surtain II on Amari Cooper, I say let them. I’d keep Coop outside and let Shakir cook in the middle of the field.
The Buffalo Bills host the Denver Broncos this Sunday for NFL Super Wild Card Weekend. While this is the sixth-straight year the Bills have made the playoffs, it’s Denver’s first appearance in the postseason since the 2015 season. That was a year where Von Miller and the Broncos’ defense dominated the Carolina Panthers, whose defense was coordinated by Sean McDermott, in the Super Bowl.
The Broncos technically have a three-game playoff winning streak on the line, although all the principles from that last playoff run are no longer with the team. This vintage of the Broncos went 10-7 on the regular season and defeated the Kansas City Chiefs’ backups in the final regular-season game to punch their ticket to the playoffs.
Denver has been hot in the season’s second half, and they’ll need to stay that way if they want to leave Highmark Stadium with a victory. If the Bills want to stave off elimination and live to play one more game in Orchard Park, NY, they’ll need to shut down Denver’s top players.
Here are five Broncos to watch this week.
QB Bo Nix
In head coach Sean McDermott’s tenure as head coach, the Bills are 9-4 against rookie quarterbacks. Those four losses were:
- In 2018 vs. Sam Darnold and the New York Jets
- In 2021 against Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars in a 9-6 barnburner
- Also in 2021 against Mac Jones and the New England Patriots in a 14-10 game highlighted by tropical storm-force winds
- Last week against the Patriots with Drake Maye/Joe Milton III playing against Buffalo’s backups and winning 23-16
Rookie quarterbacks have combined to throw seven touchdowns and 17 interceptions against the Bills in McDermott’s coaching tenure. Nix presents a unique challenge for a few reasons, as he’s extremely accurate, he throws plenty of passes at or near the line of scrimmage, and he has the ability to beat the defense with scrambles.
Nix took just 24 sacks this season while rushing for 430 yards, and he threw just 12 interceptions against 29 touchdowns. In short, the 24-year-old rookie had a fantastic season in turning the Broncos from a disappointing 2023 squad into a playoff contender in 2024.
The Bills need to make him guess coverage after the snap in order to create turnovers or hesitation. If they can make him think his first read will be there pre-snap before rolling coverage that way after the snap occurs, they’ll be able to force some negative plays.
Keeping Denver in obvious passing situations will allow the pass rush to do its thing, and if the rush and the coverage can play good complementary football, then the Bills will be moving on to the Divisional Round. If not, though, Nix has the talent and the weapons to cause issues.
WR Marvin Mims
I wrote about Courtland Sutton in our article discussing Broncos we’d like to add to Buffalo’s roster, so I won’t discuss him here again. I will talk about Mims, a second-year man who can hurt the Bills in a variety of ways.
Mims is lightning-fast and can create separation at will in his pass routes. He averaged 12.9 yards per catch this season, hauling in 39 passes for 503 yards and six scores. However, it’s his work in the return game that could be even more dangerous.
The Bills would be wise to kick all of their kickoffs through the end zone, as I’d rather see Denver have the ball at the 30-yard line than give Mims a chance to return a kick for a score. He was a Pro Bowl returner last year as a rookie, and this year he’s averaging 15.7 yards per punt return — which leads the league — and 27.7 yards per kickoff return.
Speed kills, and Mims has enough to cause the Bills myriad problems on Sunday. His matchup with Taron Johnson is going to be huge.
LB Nik Bonitto
The third-year edge player has exploded onto the scene this season, notching 13.5 sacks in earning his first Pro Bowl nod. He also had 24 quarterback hits and 16 tackles for loss, so it was a stellar season all around for the top pass rusher on the league’s top pass-rushing team.
Buffalo has one of the best pass-protecting offensive lines in the NFL, and they also have an absolute unit playing quarterback in one Joshua Patrick Allen. If the line can do its part in keeping Allen upright, then No. 17 will be free to continue working his playoff magic.
If Bonitto and friends can disrupt the passing attack, it will make this one much more difficult. Bonitto is good enough to wreck the Bills’ offensive game plan, so they’ll need to be sure that he’s accounted for at all times. If Buffalo’s offense can establish the run and the quick-hitting passing game, it will limit the damage Bonitto can do.
Staying ahead of the sticks and trusting the offensive tackles to handle him — with some help from the backs and tight ends — would be the way I’d approach it.
LB Cody Barton
Barton is one of two inside linebackers for the Broncos, and like his teammate Justin Strnad, he struggles in pass coverage. The Bills and offensive coordinator Joe Brady would be wise to attack the middle of the field in the passing game, as Denver’s outside corners — especially Pat Surtain II — are excellent.
According to Pro Football Reference, Barton has allowed 41-of-47 passes to be completed when he’s the closest man in coverage. While he does have two interceptions, I’ll take my chances on a guy allowing 87% of the passes thrown his way to be completed.
Barton was second on the Broncos in tackles this season with 106. As solid as he is against the run, he’s that much of a liability and more against the pass.
CB Ja’Quan McMillan
I don’t believe the Broncos are going to have their corners travel with Buffalo’s wideouts, as they generally have Pat Surtain II at left corner and Riley Moss at right corner. That means the Bills might be able to dictate some matchups, especially in the slot, to players like Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid.
Enter McMillan, Denver’s top slot corner. He’s a willing tackler, as he notched 81 on the season — and he’s strong in pass coverage, having made two interceptions and 10 pass breakups on the year.
However, McMillan allowed three touchdowns, a 64% completion rate, and 688 receiving yards on 65 completed passes this season. Unless Denver matches Surtain II up on Shakir, I’m spamming Shakir to the slot and trying to let him win his matchup in the middle, using some pick plays and other various rub-routes to cause traffic and confusion in the intermediate-middle of the defense.
If Denver wants to use Surtain II on Amari Cooper, I say let them. I’d keep Coop outside and let Shakir cook in the middle of the field.