How sweet it is, as the Kentucky Wildcats are back in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2019.

This week, they are headed to Indianapolis for an opportunity to advance to the Final Four, where the Wildcats will take on a familiar foe, the Tennessee Volunteers. Having swept the regular season series, Kentucky can certainly win, but it is difficult to beat a team three times.

The Volunteers won their opening rounds in Lexington against Wofford and UCLA with relative ease to advance to this week and are in the Sweet 16 for a third straight season.

Let’s take a look at the matchup.

Chaz Lanier is and has been Tennessee’s most dangerous offensive weapon this season. On the season, Lanier averages more than 18 points per game on 41% shooting from 3. To start the NCAA Tournament, Lanier has been on a burner, scoring 49 points on 55% from deep.

However, you wouldn’t know that just by watching his two performances against Kentucky. In those two games, his averages dropped significantly to 12.5 points per game on 17.6% shooting from 3.

Otega Oweh and Koby Brea have done an excellent job at running him off the 3-point line and forcing him to try and make plays going toward the rim, which he struggles with. They will need to continue to do the same on Friday, and they will even have a more confident Collin Chandler to assist.

Kentucky’s 3-point percentage has a direct correlation to their winning percentage.

• When shooting better than 30% from deep: 21-5, 80% win percentage
• When shooting worse than 30% from deep: 3-6, 33% win percentage

The Wildcats shot 50% in each of their two games against Tennessee this season, despite the Volunteers having the third-best 3-point defense in the country. Can Kentucky sustain that level of shooting?

It will be difficult to reach 50% from 3 as they did in the first two games against the Vols, but the Cats have shot 38.5% and 38.1% in the first two games of the NCAA Tournament.

Shoot 38%, and Kentucky will have a good chance of advancing.

After a five game stretch of turning the ball over 12 or more times from mid-February to early March, Kentucky has significantly improved in that area.

Since the Auburn loss on March 1st, the Wildcats have turned the ball over more than 10 times just once: The SEC Tournament against Alabama. Lamont Butler was out for that game, proving just how valuable his presence is.

 

Kentucky has not just been taking better care of the ball, but they have been generating more turnovers. They are averaging nearly nine steals per game, including a season-high 14 against Illinois.

As the most efficient offense, the Cats cannot afford to give the possession advantage against the inconsistent offense of Tennessee.

 

61%. That is Kentucky’s free throw percentage from the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament, going 22/36 from the charity stripe.

Simply, they have to shoot better from the line. Kentucky has lost multiple close Tournament games in the past for this reason.