The NHL’s top points percentage is no longer held by the Winnipeg Jets. The Jets dropped from first to third in the standings and from fourth to ninth on our list after ending with a 1-3-0 record last week.
The Jets are seeing some regression following their season-opening record, as our model expected, ranking fourth in each of the previous two weeks. Since no team can win at the same rate they were winning, some of this is to be expected. In their last five games, the Jets’ offense has cooled considerably, averaging just two goals per contest.
For Jets supporters, the good news is that this squad is still good, if not great. The top five teams on our list, however, all have goal and anticipated goal differential rankings in the top 10. The Jets are 12th in terms of predicted goal differential and second in terms of goal differential.
The Toronto Maple Leafs have dropped one spot, from sixth to seventh place. Their lack of recent games is more of the reason for their minor decline on our ranking than their performance.
In the last 15 days, the Leafs have only played four games. Toronto is ranked 10th in goal difference, 11th in anticipated goal differential, and sixth in points percentage. Regardless of your point of view, they appear to be a contender but not necessarily one of the best clubs in the league.
It’s crucial to remember that regression affects both parties. Regression can also be positive, despite its negative connotations. The Edmonton Oilers, who moved up two slots from 12th to 10th on our ranking, have undoubtedly demonstrated that.
Edmonton has scored 14 goals in three consecutive victories. The Oilers have produced excellent scoring opportunities throughout the season, but they haven’t had the finishing touch to rank among the best scoring teams. Well, the wins are coming in and the pucks are going in. Edmonton is ranked 10th on our list because, while they may not now be in the top 10 in terms of points percentage, we think they will be in the near future.
After a 3-1-0 week, the Vancouver Canucks have moved up three spots from 17th to 14th place.
The Canucks continue to play even though they are without important players like Thatcher Demko, J.T. Miller, and Filip Hronek. Last week, Quinn Hughes, who is having another season of Norris-caliber, led the club in points with nine, while Jake DeBrusk led with five goals.
In Calgary, things aren’t always sunny. The Flames fell from 11th to 23rd on our list after going 0-3-1 the previous week. Goaltending and defense have been the Flames’ mainstays, but they have faltered in recent games.
In its last five games, Calgary has allowed an average of four goals, which is difficult for a team that struggles to score goals. This season, Calgary is averaging just over 2.5 goals per game, so a subpar defensive performance is unlikely.
From 24th to 21st, the Ottawa Senators have moved up three spots. After finishing a road trip to the West, the Sens finished 2-1-1 last week.
Given that the Senators are now ranked 28th in terms of percentage of points, our model believes they can do better than their record suggests. However, Ottawa’s uneven play is still a problem. Prior to their home games against the Red Wings, Predators, Islanders, and Ducks, the Senators get a few days off. The Senators’ chances of making the Eastern playoffs again may depend on this stretch.
Last but not least, after ranking 27th last week, the Montreal Canadiens are once again at the bottom of our rankings.
The Habs concluded last week with a 1-2-1 record as they get set for a five-game homestand. Against the Bruins on Sunday afternoon, Montreal let up three goals in a 70-second period. It carried on a pattern of letting things get out of control. This season, the Canadiens have only scored a goal in response to an opponent’s goal 36% of the time, which is 29th in the NHL.