What the Crystal Ball Says for Second Half of Ravens’ Season

Mink and Downing discussed various aspects of the Baltimore Ravens and their current season:

Mink: When the team was in England, I went to a small pub in a small town with Garrett and some colleagues. In the back room, there was a woman offering tarot card readings. Like you, I was tempted to peek into the future of the Ravens’ 2023 season, but I resisted.

Back then, things didn’t look too promising. The Ravens were coming off a frustrating loss in Pittsburgh, dealing with numerous injuries, and in the midst of a grueling travel schedule.

However, things have taken a positive turn with three consecutive wins. According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, the Ravens now have a 92.8% chance of making the playoffs, which ranks seventh in the NFL. They share the best record in the AFC at 6-2, with a 71.8% chance of winning the division and a 10.1% chance of winning the Super Bowl.

Setting aside statistical projections, the Ravens’ offense is steadily improving, and the team is getting healthier. While they stumbled a bit in Arizona, they’ve averaged 31 points over their last three games. The Ravens are expected to have key players like Tyus Bowser, David Ojabo, and others returning from injuries. Rashod Bateman is starting to shine, the offensive line is coming together, and the Ravens have a favorable home schedule ahead. All signs point in a positive direction for the team.

The only potential concern is the Ravens’ remaining strength of schedule, which is the toughest among AFC North teams and the third toughest in the league. However, if Lamar Jackson remains healthy, history suggests that the Ravens can finish strong. In previous years, they closed out seasons with impressive winning streaks.

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Downing: Starting a Go Fund Me campaign might be a good idea because the Ravens are facing the challenge of retaining some of their star players. Justin Madubuike, Patrick Queen, and Geno Stone are all poised to hit the market, and it will be difficult to sign all three to long-term contracts. Spotrac estimates the Ravens will have about $13 million in cap space next season, which isn’t much. This constraint is partly due to Lamar Jackson’s lucrative long-term contract, which exceeds $50 million per year.

The franchise tag could be an option for Madubuike, who is having a breakout season and could command a contract in the range of $15-20 million annually. However, the franchise tag itself would cost around $20 million, requiring cap maneuvering.

For Queen, the franchise tag isn’t an option since the Ravens declined his fifth-year option. Thus, a long-term extension is necessary to retain him, especially given his performance this year.

Predicting Geno Stone’s contract value is tricky, but his stock keeps rising with his impressive interceptions. The Ravens may manage to keep one of these pending free agents, but it’s uncertain who that will be.

Mink: The Ravens have attempted screen plays this season, but their execution wasn’t ideal in the game against Arizona. However, a closer look reveals they came close to breaking one with Zay Flowers. A slightly faster reaction from Ronnie Stanley to block a safety could have led to a big play.

The Ravens have the right personnel for successful screens. Flowers is dynamic with the ball, and Justice Hill is shifty and explosive on running back screens. Mobile tackles like Stanley and Morgan Moses can be valuable, and strong blocking from other receivers, like Odell Beckham Jr. and Bateman, is crucial.

Downing: The Ravens’ passing game didn’t shine against the Cardinals, with several factors contributing to that. Arizona’s defensive strategy involved dropping most of their defenders into coverage to create tighter throwing windows. The Ravens initially tried pushing the ball downfield but switched to a ground game centered around Gus Edwards in the second half.

Regarding Jackson’s ball-holding habits, he’s actually releasing the ball faster than ever this season, with a career-low average time to throw of 2.79 seconds, ranking 17th in the league. In previous seasons, he held the ball longer than most quarterbacks, but this year’s offense under Todd Monken emphasizes quick releases. The Cardinals successfully disrupted this strategy in their game, but it remains a priority for the Ravens’ offense.

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