Corbin Burnes will be a free agent in one year. Given his market value next winter, many expect the Milwaukee Brewers will move him this year, perhaps before or during the season. Unless Milwaukee chooses the latter, they will be in a postseason race by July. It would make trading their ace much more difficult at that point in the season. The Brewers want to compete next season, but the front staff has an unusual quandary. Do they relocate Burnes now or wait until the end of the season to reassess the situation?
What to Do With Corbin Burnes
If Milwaukee decides to part ways with him in the upcoming year, any team looking to acquire him will need to be prepared to pay a substantial price. This implies that they’ll have to offer promising young pitchers under team control since the Brewers are not under pressure to make a deal. Teams that miss out on securing Yoshinobu Yamamoto may explore the trade market, where Burnes is expected to draw attention as the premier available option.
Who has more trade value: Corbin Burnes or Dylan Cease?
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Among the teams displaying notable aggression this winter, the Los Angeles Dodgers stand out. Despite already securing Shohei Ohtani and trading for Tyler Glasnow, they are in need of a shortstop. The Dodgers might consider reaching out to the Brewers for a potential deal involving both Burnes and Willy Adames, who is also set to become a free agent at the end of the next season. Additionally, the New York Yankees, Atlanta Braves, and Texas Rangers could explore the possibility of acquiring Burnes, depending on the developments with Yamamoto.
Willingness to Keep Burnes Is Unclear
If Milwaukee Fails to Contend
If the Brewers fail to maintain a competitive position in the standings or playoff race, there’s a possibility they may consider trading Burnes before the deadline, provided he remains in good health. The current challenge for teams seeking starting pitching depth is the abundance of free agents in the market. Signing Blake Snell would involve sacrificing a draft pick, unlike other available pitchers who only require a monetary investment, allowing teams to retain their picks and prospects.
The Brewers face a hurdle in maximizing the return for Burnes due to his relatively high salary in the last year of arbitration before becoming a free agent. Unlike Glasnow, Burnes is perceived as unlikely to sign a contract extension. The dilemma lies in the risk of keeping Burnes, as an injury or a decline in performance could occur before the deadline. If the Brewers are in contention, trading Burnes and Adames may not be a consideration. However, in such a scenario, the Brewers might end up with just two draft picks—possibly one if they choose not to extend a qualifying offer to Adames.
Brewers’ general manager Matt Arnold anticipates Burnes being the Opening Day starter, slated for March 28, 2024. Nevertheless, there’s a recognition that a lot can change between the current moment and the start of the season.